I'm using a 1/10 and it works great comes on for short periods then off, definitely doesn't seem under sized.
The LFS where I bought it had a calculator program to figure out the correct size. The calculator he used took into account tank size, pumps, lights, room temp, target temp, and I'm not sure I remember what else. I was ready to buy the 1/4 HP but he assured me I'd be OK with spending less and so far he was right. Not to mention he had both in stock, I would have paid the extra.
I'm not sure if his program was web based or something on his computer...either way I think he knew what the values were for each item.
If you can't find someone to do this calulation for you, the best advice I would have would be to pay attention to how much you need the temp to drop. If you're trying to reach 78.5 from 80.1 I would say the 1/10HP will work...If you're trying to get to 78 from 85 1/10HP won't do it.