I think LED lighting will become the lighting of choice in the long term future. Today, now, it's still very expensive for what you get. In effect, you save about 50% on electricity over MHs.
If we use the numbers from the previous post of a $400 initial investment and getting the same light as a 70w MH, this is the result -
You save 34w per hour on electricity, times 8 hours a day, times 365 days a year = 99,280 watts or 99.28 KW saved. (Note there is a possible additional factor here, which is the relative performance of the power supplies involved. I didn't take this into consideration because I have no way of knowing what it is for MH or LEDs)
At .15 per KWH we save 14.90 per year on electricity. Note that this could be higher if your system needs a chiller because of the MHs. For a lighting system this size most people would not.
In addition, we would also save the cost of a MH bulb. If we figure a MH bulb is good for about 18 months, and has a replacement cost of $60 this works out to about $40 a year in bulb replacement costs.
So we save about $54.90 a year using LEDs over MHs. Note that the biggest part of the savings is in bulb replacement.
A 70w MH fixture is going to cost about $170. This makes a price difference of about $230 less than LEDs. We must also keep in mind that the LED fixture was a DIY project. A manufactured product would cost a lot more.
Dividing the price difference of $230 by the cost savings of 54.90 we get a pay back time of 4.18 years or just over 4 years. This also assumes that nothing during this period needs replacement. In other words, you never knock the fixture into the tank, and nothing ever goes wrong.
The question comes down to this. Does a 4 year ROI (return on investment) justify the up front cost of the LEDs?
In my opinion, the ROI is a lot better than the first generation LED fixtures by PFO, which had something like an 8 or 9 year ROI, but it still takes a log time to get your money back.
For this reason, I can only recommend LEDs for people that want an LED system at any price. For most of us, I think we are still better off using MHs or T5s. In about 5 to 10 years or so, I would expect LEDs to be a much better choice.